Musk under pressure at Tesla, uses lawyerly cautious language
What is going on behind the scenes?
I just finished listening to the Tesla second quarter 2024 financial results call. By the end of the call, the stock had traded down over 6% from when the market closed. What happened?
Elon Musk started the call with a long update on things. The most important thing in his presentation was his tone, voice and overall willingness -- or lack thereof -- to be specific about timelines for the next products to be released.
Musk stuttered, stammered and had so many “ooouuuuhhhs” and “aaaahhhhs” that he clearly kept checking himself from saying something he wasn’t supposed to. I didn’t see who was in the room with him, but it felt like he was sitting around a small table with lawyers all around, including one or two looking over his shoulders.
The two Elons on the call
I just described the first Elon, the one who spoke so carefully while stammering. There was also another Elon on the call, one who spoke effortlessly and did not stammer. Who was that latter Elon? It was when he was speaking about non-specific things and stuff that wasn’t about Tesla directly. For example, when he commented on why GM’s self-driving car had failed. Then, Musk was sharp and clear, not feeling any lawyer looking over his shoulder. There was no risk, on that subject.
Everything is late
Musk hopes to deliver the Tesla Roadster 2.0 perhaps by the end of 2025. Wow, some people paid $250,000 for that thing in 2017 and haven’t received anything for it yet. Imagine putting that $250,000 into the stock market instead.
As far as self-driving cars, Tesla postponed some sort of event from August 8 to October 10. When asked when full self-driving would actually work, he said it would probably work by the end of 2025.
You may recall that Musk promised in October 2016 that every Tesla produced October 2016 onwards would be fully autonomous (Level 5 autonomy) via a software update. Will Tesla deliver this before 2026? Don’t hold your breath. This alone is a huge legal issue.
Back what’s making Musk nervous
Musk’s psychology is easy to read, I think. He speaks slower and with an extreme stammer when he is held back. Why is he held back? In my opinion, because he’s under legal pressure to not say something that will get the feds to press the big red button. Clearly there is something serious simmering just below the surface here.
My 2024 predictions: One down, one to go
You may recall my 2024 predictions that I published on December 31:
https://antonwahlman.substack.com/p/top-2024-predictions-elections-musk
The first one: Biden announces his retirement in the Summer of 2024 and is replaced as the Democrat candidate for the November 2024 election. That one, I nailed nearly 100%. I had said it would happen in August, not in July. Close enough. If anyone predicted this more accurately than I did, please let me know.
My second prediction was that The Biden Regime would indict Musk. This rationale remains unchanged from what I wrote on December 31, and is what I think is bothering Musk now. No, not that I wrote about it, but that he is sensing that the feds are closing in. Something appears to be in the works, even though I know absolutely nothing about it. I am simply reading the tea leaves.
You can listen to the whole Tesla call here:
Pay particular attention to the first few minutes, Elon’s opening remarks.