A political disaster: Trump should have abolished all tariffs instead
Higher prices guarantee Democrat victories in 2026 and 2028
Get ready for a true socialist such as Bernie Sanders or AOC to win the Presidency in November 2028. And for the Republicans to lose both houses of Congress in November 2026.
Why? Higher prices.
In November 2024, America voted against higher prices more than anything. We all know almost everything cost a lot more in 2024 than it did four years earlier. This was the inflation election, not unlike 1980.
Trump learned the wrong lesson from November 2024
So what did Trump do after becoming President in January 2025? He has announced huge tariff increases on most things, from most countries. This will obviously result in higher prices -- MUCH higher price hikes than we saw over the previous four years.
This will obviously hurt the US consumer, and it will be very visible: From your car to your home to almost everything you buy, everything under the sun will become much more expensive. Even stuff that is made in the US relies indirectly on imports, and these “Made in America” products will therefore also see price hikes.
The American voter will punish Republicans
The American voter doesn’t care whether a small number of “jobs” were saved in this-or-that industry. The American voter will know one thing: This government raised the prices I pay on everything. My new car just got $8,000 more expensive -- $40,000 instead of $32,000. People will become furious.
2026 election: Adios, Congress
These new tariff hikes could throw the country into an economic depression already before 2025 is over. Then, in 2026 it would lead to the Republicans losing both houses of US Congress. I don’t need to describe to you what a disaster this would be.
2028 election: Adios, Presidency
Unless Trump reverses these tariffs -- quickly! -- the economic depression they will cause will make the 2028 Presidential election look like 1932. It will be a wipeout. The country will likely elect an outright socialist in the direction of Bernie Sanders or AOC. But they are insane, you say? Yes, of course they are insane -- but the country will vote against higher prices (just like in November 2024) and the Republicans will be painted as the “high price devil.”
What should Trump have done instead?
It’s easy, actually: People want lower prices, not higher prices. Americans voted for lower prices, not higher prices. Therefore, what Trump should have done is to abolish all tariffs immediately, period. The American people would have rejoiced, and it would have secured larger Republican majorities in US Congress in 2026, and the election of a Republican President in 2028.
Instead, with these economically counterproductive tariffs, the political outcome will be the opposite. Instead of heaven, we will get hell.
The second biggest economic policy mistake in US history
Tariff increases are the second biggest economic policy mistake in US history. What’s the biggest one, you might ask? That honor goes to “15 days to slow the spread” from March 16, 2020, and all the follow-up extensions, bailouts and money-printing orgies that followed later that March, April and beyond, for the rest of 2020, setting the stage for the great inflation of 2021.
Can we at least all agree that “15 days to slow the spread” -- lockdowns, closing schools, ending travel, and so forth -- was a 100% mistake and had zero health benefits? Well, higher tariffs are only one step away from being as bad. They are both “once in 200 years” policy disasters.
Is there any hope at all?
The best we can hope for now, is that Trump simply changes his mind and abolishes these tariff hikes. I haven’t the first clue whether this will happen or not.
In the end, most companies will not change their economic production models because of these tariffs. They will simply wait Trump out, knowing that his last day in office is January 20, 2029. It’s better to lose sales between now and then, than to spend the money it will take to move manufacturing to the US. It’s too much money for too little time, when everyone knows the tariffs will be gone in less than four years from now. Suboptimal to be sure, but still the least bad option.
Here is an interview from April 2 with former US Commerce Secretary (under George Bush 43), Carlos Gutierrez:
“Higher prices guarantee Democrat victories in 2026 and 2028”
Trump 47 is a repeat of Trump 45. After having a unified Republican government (House, Senate, and Presidency) in 2017 and 2018, Trump lost the House in 2018 (leading to multiple impeachments), then lost the Senate and Presidency in 2020 (likely due to the COVID debacle orchestrated by his handing the “keys to the kingdom” to Dr Fauci).
We are about to enter a worldwide recession that will not bottom until 3Q2028 — right in the middle of election season — that has now been exacerbated by Trump’s Executive Order imposing the biggest supply chain disruption and tax increase in U.S. history. What a shame that Republicans chose as its presidential candidate a life-long New York Democrat.
Since Trump cannot be re-elected, he was a “lame duck” on Day 1. He will hand the next president a unified Democrat government in 2028. Had we chosen Ron DeSantis, he would have CUT taxes, as he’s doing in Florida, and been able to recover from the (much milder) recession during his TWO TERMS in office. But of course, Republicans have always chased the “bright, shiny object” and sucked at political strategy.
Neither am I. Should prices skyrocket in a sustained fashion then tariffs will be seen as the gift that keeps on giving for the Dems. However, I doubt they would need to roll the dice with a pure socialist or someone like AOC -- my guess is that a middle-of-the-road sensible Dem, like Fetterman or Torres or Shapiro, would be sufficient to overturn the GOP.