As much as I want Trump or RFK to win in November, I currently (August 7) assess Commie-La’s chances of being inaugurated on January 20, 2025, at 80%-90%, and therefore Trump’s chances at no better than 20%. There are many impossible-to-calculate reasons for this, including the fact that the US has unverified mail-in ballots and no requirement to show up in person and verify citizenship at the moment of voting. No country in darkest Africa has this level of possible election fraud.
However, there is one more fundamental reason why Trump’s chances this November are now lower than 50%, and that is that the US population has become increasingly socialist, especially within the last five years. These are the main long-term trends:
Indoctrination in schools
Indoctrination in media
Indoctrination in culture in general
Immigration from countries with no culture of freedom
Average IQ has fallen nearly 10 points from 1982
No knowledge -- or wrong “knowledge” -- of history
That is why, when they say it’s impossible for the US to elect a socialist and imbecile such as Commie-La Harris and her equally socialist VP Tim Walz, they are just too optimistic. The US population of 2024 just isn’t the same as what it was in 2004 or even 2019. Freedom is on the retreat in the US, and it has been happening in steps for decades. The spirit of Liberty has been replaced by the spirit of stimmy checks and bailouts, free college, etc, which will eventually blow up in a debt and currency crisis of epic once-in-300 years proportions. And at that point, all the wrong people and policies will be blamed.
2020: The year that will live in infamy
When the Trump campaign asks “Are you better now than you were four years ago?” it is a bad question from his perspective because we are all much better off in 2024 than we were after March 16, 2020. Life under Trump’s “15 days to slow the spread” was the worst in my lifetime, and probably the worst time for the US overall since at least 1865. There were lockdowns, masks and rioting in and around Summer 2020. Trump was doing sort-of okay until March 16, 2020, when he failed to do any research, speak to the right people, or apply principles of logic and liberty -- and therefore fell for the C-19 hoax hysteria.
As a result, “thanks” to Trump, we got Biden. If Trump had not gone full Dr Fauci in March 2020, nobody would have noticed the regular flu season -- just like we never notice the regular flu season -- and Trump would have sailed to relatively easy re-election in November 2020.
2023-2024 Republican primary: Trump too scared to debate
The disaster Biden regime meant that any Republican except Trump would have easily beaten Biden or anyone who would have replaced Biden, such as Commie-La. Instead, what happened was that Trump refused to debate his primary opponents -- chief among them, Ron DeSantis -- because Trump knew that he would have been clobbered by the significantly more accomplished and skilful DeSantis. Other candidates such as Vivek would also have taken Trump to the cleaners on the debate stage.
2024 election: Trump too incompetent to campaign
Trump’s general election campaign of 2024 thus far has been a disaster. Trump’s July 18 RNC acceptance speech was so boring that I could not stand watching it more than half-way. It was a hugely missed opportunity.
Then, Trump seems to have gone into lazy mode. He talks a big game about working hard, just like he actually did in the 2016 campaign, but in reality his rallies are now several days apart. Lord knows what he does in the meantime, but one suspects golf and resting, sort of like Biden. Other parts of the campaign, such as staffing field offices or advertising, seem completely absent or starved for funds. Trump just doesn’t seem to be running a campaign. If he was trying to lose, I don’t know what he would be doing differently.
Most recently, Trump keeps posting increasingly delusional statements on Truth Social -- which nobody uses, so the posts have to be re-posted by independent people on Twitter -- including this beyond insane August 6 Trump theory that Biden will somehow be coming to back in order to wrestle the nomination from Commie-La:
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1820914646142103893
Is Trump just goofing around in a not-so-funny manner here, or is he really this delusional? It had better be the former, but the fact that I can’t say for sure is extremely worrying. It’s never a good feeling when you think that the candidate you’re hoping to win may have completely lost it.
Therefore, Trump is responsible for America turning socialist
Summarizing the above, there are three reasons why America is going socialist in stages from 2020 until now and likely culminating in 2025 under the upcoming Commie-La regime, and the last two of those reasons are Trump’s fault:
America has become culturally socialist through indoctrination across society
Trump’s insane C-19 lockdowns of March 16, 2020
Trump’s inability to run an effective campaign in 2024
Hope is not a strategy
My biggest hope for 2024 is that I will be proven wrong. Maybe the US population hasn’t become as socialist as I fear it has. Maybe people will excuse Trump for making 2020 into lockdown hell. Maybe people will be smart enough to realize that Commie-La and her equally commie lapdog VP Walz are going to be a bigger disaster than Trump, despite Trump’s poor campaign skills and questionable style.
The problem is that hope is not a strategy. While there is still a 10%-20% or so chance that things may turn out well despite the headwinds, a rational assessment right now is that things are looking bleak for the outcome of the November 5 race and therefore the country. The US is likely to see an unprecedented lurch into Venezuela-style socialism starting in just a few months from now.
The Trump campaign is well on its way of going the way of the DJT stock ticker, Trump Truth Social Media, which has crashed from over $65 per share in March 2024 to $25 now, less than five months later. I told everyone who would listen in March to sell it if they owned it, and I think it has dramatic downside potential even from here.
What could change? Where could I be wrong? Clearly, somewhere between economic crisis, war and other calamitous events, surprises could turn things around. Remember that Obama was not the clear favorite to win the 2008 election until the September 16 Lehman Brother bankruptcy and the financial crisis that followed immediately thereafter. On another level, presumed VP nominee Tim Walz has not been properly vetted and one suspects that his past may contain shocking skeletons that could surface in the coming weeks.
In the midst of all this, we did see a glimmer of hope from the distant third-party independent candidate, RFK, who told the hysterical story of the dead bear that he found:
RFK Jr. just won the vote of all those folk who think bicyclists don't belong on the road, get in the way of cars, and are a danger not only to pedestrians but also to bears in Central Park.
Spot on Anton! The probable reality is that Trump is on the scam… he stands by the jabs even though it’s clear this was a DARPA depopulation scheme.. he is a staunch Zionist.