SBF, Musk and The Deep State
With SBF under their belt, will The Deep State make a move on Musk?
Scam Bankrupt-Fraud was never going to appear in front of US Congress, testifying under oath on subjects that would have included political contributions mainly to Democrats. Instead of the objectively smart prosecutorial tactic of allowing SBF to hang himself under oath on a multitude of subjects all relevant to the prosecution, the DOJ and SEC appear to have swept in only hours before to pre-empt the process in order to keep SBF from embarrassing the relevant people on live TV in front of Congress.
Basically: Enough talking, SBF -- especially any thought of being questioned in US Congress on live TV by Republicans, who want to know about your ties to the Democrat majority, some of whom would be sitting next to them during the questioning. That can’t be allowed to happen in such a public way, especially as it may impact future elections.
How the SBF saga will end, other than an obvious conviction if it goes that far, I can’t say for sure. The lowest odds are on the Epstein solution: Instead of keeping SBF safe in Supermax in Colorado, the prosecutors may put him up in a NYC jail where cameras can be made to malfunction at the right moment, and where the guards are sketchy. RIP SBF.
While I don’t want to pre-judge a would-be SBF trial, let’s just say that it looks right now like it would be a successful prosecution. Basically, he is convicted in the eyes not only of the court, but also in the eyes of the public. A Madoff situation. The Justice Department delivers what the public wanted.
On the backs of such a successful prosecution, what would be the next item on the Feds’ agenda? Nothing has angered The Deep State as much recently as Elon Musk bringing back free speech to Twitter.
Free speech on the major online platforms had been abolished in the U.S. at various points over the last seven years. It had been replaced by an increasingly brazen censorship regime, with the major online platforms staffed 99% by extreme leftists who colluded with their equally leftist friends in The Deep State.
This censorship regime had as its main practical outcome the interference into, and rigging of, U.S. elections, and especially the 2020 Presidential election. It was entirely one-sided, and Elon Musk has now started to expose the horrific internal communication at Twitter that verifies what we had already suspected: The election-rigging was entirely premeditated, and it was done in partnership with The Deep State and Twitter. It was statecraft at a level where major Dictatorship regimes around the world were impressed. It was done to change the biggest election of them all, and it succeeded in spearheading a de-facto coup against President Trump, in no small part helped by Twitter’s election interference.
Elon Musk revealing all of this has only begun. As of this writing, the suppression of regime critics on other subjects such as C19 bug paranoia and the kooky anti-freedom policy responses to this latest variant of the seasonal flu and common cold, may be part of revelations in the near future.
The feds may make a move on Musk
In 2022, Musk went from establishment hero to Public Enemy Number One in barely a couple of months. Before, he and his largest company practically defined ESG. Now, the de-facto 180 degree shift means that investment funds are divesting themselves as if Musk and his largest company has become the anti-ESG. Just look at the sharp drop in the Tesla share price in 2022.
For about a decade, various law enforcement agencies have conducted investigations into Musk and his companies. With some modest exceptions -- such as the August 2018 fake takeover “$420 funding secured” -- Musk and his companies have almost mysteriously escaped the heavy hand of law enforcement. One gets the impression that it was politically incorrect to prosecute, or that there was something else behind the scenes pulling the strings in another direction. Whatever the reason, the Feds held back.
Well, that can easily change.
In our world, particularly in the U.S., almost everything is a crime because there are so many rules that it’s impossible to know what they are and how to follow them. Harvey Silverglate wrote a book about it called “Three felonies a day” https://www.amazon.com/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocent/dp/1594035229
Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld also pointed out a version of this in his annual letter to the IRS:
In reality, few people are prosecuted, especially to the fullest extent of the law. That is because there is such a thing as “prosecutorial discretion” in which law enforcement realizes that the laws are overly broad and insane, and that they will let people go essentially because they realize that people have no idea what the law was, and therefore no intent in violating it.
However, when it suits the government, they can pretty much put someone in jail for spitting on the sidewalk. If they apply the full letter of the law, they can find something on everyone. The secret police boss in Moscow in the 1930s, Lavrentiy Beria, famously told Stalin to “find me the man, and I will find the crime.” That’s the U.S. today too.
If they want to put you away, they can find something on everyone.
At this point, one gets the impression that The Deep State’s new priority #1 is rapidly becoming Elon Musk. They can’t stand the thought of free speech online, or that Elon Musk is revealing how Twitter colluded secretly with The Deep State in order to rig the 2020 U.S. Presidential election by interfering exclusively on behalf of one side (Democrats) in order to penalize the other (Republicans, especially Trump).
Basically, Musk has challenged the biggest scorpion on Earth by essentially stomping all over it -- barefoot. Talk about risk!
Investment conclusion: Sell your Tesla stock
For the investor, it’s not important to know why The Deep State would make a move on Musk. It’s not important to agree or disagree. It’s not important to debate whether it’s right or wrong. That’s all another story.
You could argue that it’s the right guy being put away for the wrong reasons, or that it’s the wrong guy being put away for the right reasons. Or any other combination. It doesn’t matter. When you can’t change the outcome, only the end result matters.
Rather, the important thing for the investor is this: If The Deep State makes a move on Musk, DOJ perp walk and all, I think the downside in Tesla stock could be as much as in the ballpark of 99% from here. Without Musk, Tesla may become valued like a low-multiple automaker -- but perhaps at a discount, especially if the accounting needs to be restated, or if there are any other legal liabilities such as those related to “Full Self Driving” (FSD). In an extreme scenario, the valuation could therefore go down by much more than 99%.
A tricky and painful situation for the world
If The Deep State makes a move on Musk, which I outline above now seems increasingly likely, it would be a multi-edged sword for some people. It’s entirely possible to believe that it may be deserving based on legitimate issues that predate Twitter, or are in any case entirely separate from Twitter -- and yet that it would constitute an unfair and devastating loss to freedom of speech and therefore the future of the US republic and indeed freedom for the whole world. The consequence may be as devastating to human freedom as if the other side had won World War Two.
The investor, however, has no such luxury to cherry-pick an outcome. If you can’t change the future, you can at least try to profit from it -- or at a minimum avoid losses from a future that you can’t change, just like you can’t change the climate or escape an inevitable virus.
Whatever happens to Musk, I hope that Twitter will somehow remain under the control of someone who will defend Freedom of Speech. If that doesn’t happen, the U.S. would solidify under a de-facto dictatorship such as China, Cuba or North Korea. The darkest of days would be ahead.
For that reason, I can’t help but to hope that Musk will be able to stand his ground with free speech on Twitter, and that whatever else happens to him and his other companies, that Twitter can continue his mission of being a beacon for free speech.
Growing up I could not understand how the German people would allow such atrocities. Why would they allow and even promote a dictator? After reading Rand, I could not understand why everyone did not understand the obvious. Of course that all changes as you begin to live in a reality where people with a straight face will tell you the Constitution is a terrible document and freedom of speech is dangerous.
Man, you are really clutching at straws with this crap. Why am I paying you for this s#*@? Stick to stocks/markets etc. and quit the conspiracy theory crap. I know it gets you subscribers who are into 'crazy' and they lap it up, but c'mon man you're better than this. We need sanity now not more made up crap.