The advantage of picking Rubio for VP: Flipping New Mexico and Cuba
Turns out, Florida residency is not a problem
I have previously written that Trump would be best served by picking Nikki Haley as his running mate. I also explained why I made that recommendation despite that I disagree with many of Haley’s policy positions and instincts. She was (and is) wrong on masks, vaccines, NATO, and so many more things. She’s an instinctive leftist. But -- she would also help Trump win in November.
However, two things have changed that make this recommendation less compelling or even moot:
Haley doesn’t seem to be in the running.
Turns out, contrary to previous belief, Marco Rubio’s Florida residency isn’t a problem.
Let’s deal with these two issues in turn.
The first one is simple. If we are to believe Politico -- and many others -- Haley is simply not on the VP list:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/17/trump-vp-pick-list-pros-cons-00162820
Let’s skip the reasons why Haley isn’t in consideration anymore, so that we can focus on the more important detail.
Turns out, Rubio’s Florida residency isn’t a problem after all
It was long considered a problem to have a Vice Presidential candidate with a residency in the same state as the top of the ticket. This became an issue in 2000, when Dick Cheney was living in Texas just like George Bush.
In 2000, this was absolutely not a problem at all. Dick Cheney was retired to begin with, and he had strong ties back to his original home state in Wyoming. He just moved back to Teton County, WY, overnight and the “problem” was solved overnight up-front. Basically, it was a move he was going to do anyway, so this was truly painless.
In Marco Rubio’s case, that’s not as easy. Rubio is a sitting Senator and couldn’t move out of Florida right now without basically surrendering his Senate seat. That would be neither attractive nor desirable.
The solution: Wait until December 17
What saves the Marco Rubio-as-VP proposition is that he would not need to move out of Florida before the November election. The Constitution simply says that the electors can’t vote for a VP from the same state as The President. However, the electors don’t meet and cast their votes until December 17.
As a result, Rubio could stay in Florida and stay as Senator until just a few minutes before the electors meet on December 17. The election is in early November, and surely we would know the result well before December 17 -- unless we have another Al Gore situation, such as in 2000, but even that was decided before the electors met and voted in mid-December.
In other words, Rubio has over a full month between early November, and December 17, to move out of Florida, if that becomes necessary. And it may not be necessary, either because Trump loses or because Trump wins by a sufficient margin to make the 30 Florida electors unnecessary.
Rubio puts New Mexico in play
Rubio is an outstanding candidate no matter the circumstance, including his debate skills:
However, Rubio’s obvious advantage is that he’s a fluent Spanish speaker. How could that not possibly be used to great advantage against Biden-Harris?
Rubio should spend nearly 90% of his time on the campaign trail giving speeches at least partially in Spanish. This would secure Texas, Arizona and Nevada in Trump’s column, and I think it could even put New Mexico in play. The last time a Republican won New Mexico was in 2004, and before then, 1988.
New Mexico has “only” five electoral votes, but they would be instrumental in this otherwise likely scenario:
Trump flips Georgia, Arizona and Nevada
Biden keeps Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan
In this scenario, Biden wins 270-268, the narrowest possible margin short of a tie that would have to be resolved in the US House of Representatives, where the Republicans have the (slightest) advantage.
In other words, Trump needs one more move on the chess board. This is where Rubio secures the win, unlike all the other VP candidates. Rubio is the one guy who can flip New Mexico. None of the other ones can.
In that scenario, Trump wins 273-265, instead of losing 268-270. Case closed.
Marco Rubio should give a speech in Cuba
If I am right and Trump picks Rubio, I have the following advice for the Rubio campaign: Travel to Cuba and attempt to give a speech. Whether he will be allowed to do so or not, the attempt itself would lift the prestige of the whole Rubio-for-VP campaign. The upside is enormous. Can you imagine if Rubio giving a speech to thousands of people in Havana causes an outright revolution and topples the regime? It would be some of the biggest world news in half a century.
The attention Rubio would get from going to Cuba would top anything Trump could ever do himself. It would dominate the campaign and make all the other figures -- Biden, Harris and Trump himself -- look small.
I suspect that, if Trump were to win with a vp that is that palatable to the establishment, Trump would go the way of JFK.
From what I understand (not a Constitutional scholar) the electors vote for Prez and Vice Prez separately. So maybe Fla electors could vote for Trump, but then vote for someone else (Joe the Plumber?) for VP. So Trump gets 270+ but Rubio doesn’t. What then? Don’t know. Decided by the House? And what about the “faithless electors” restriction? If Rubio wins the VP slot, are Fla electors bound by law to vote for him, in violation of the Constitution? Someone smarter than Trump needs to game this out before his VP is chosen.
Re: Rubio in Cuba… Biggest problem: “The attention Rubio would get from going to Cuba would top anything Trump could ever do himself.” Trump would never allow his VP to steal even one lumen of his spotlight. I’m guessing he’ll pick another no-drama, no-balls milquetoast like Pence.